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Analysing Buy vs Rent For Residential Properties : Impact on Property Prices


By hope, Section Gurgaon Real Estate Property
Posted on Sat Oct 29, 2005 at 09:11:34 PM EST

I stay in Gurgaon and some weeks back I decided to look for a property for purchase in one of the prominent building in DLF phase - II  under pressure from Family.  The going price quoted to me was about Rs 90 lacs which meant that after paying stamp duty and some basic expenditure on the House (like woodwork) it would have cost me atleast 100 lacs to make it liveable.  Looking at the property rate, I started thinking does it really make sense to buy a property at such high prices today or does it make sense to rent the same out. The rental charges at which the properties dealers were willing to rent out were between 25,000-30,000/month (different than they quote in newspapers).

 So I started doing a little calculation as follows:

If I decide to buy a property on loan (assuming I don't have stash of money floating round with no avenues to invest), my expected opportunity cost would be as follows:

Buy The Flat

Cost of the Property                : Rs 100 lacs
Opportunity Cost @9% per annum         : Rs 9 lacs per annum
based on current average lending rates
Add : Maintenance charges @ 3000/month    : Rs 0.36 lacs
Less : tax rebate on Interest payment         : Rs 0.50 lacs
(33% of 1.50 lacs)
Total Opportunity Cost            : Rs 8.86 lacs

Rent the Flat
Month Rent of  the property            " Rs 30,000 per month
Total Rental Cost                :Rs 3.6 lacs per annum

Net Savings per annum in             : Rs  5.26 lacs
Renting vs Ownership

Some assumptions have been made like there is no tax rebate on rental available to the person which would have made the situation more favourable for renting. Also some figures are rounded off to convey the basic message.

I was shocked to see the potential saving every year I can make, if I decide to postpone the decision to buy the property for one year. The critics of the analysis will say that the properties is not purchased for Rentals but also for the future price rise.

So I decided to do a one more analysis of WHATIF the property prices were to rise by 10% in one year and whatif it was to fall by 10% in one year, before I decide to take the decision to BUY the property after year one.

1.  Price Rise of 10% in one year -   If I decide to buy the property after one year and the price has gone up by 10%, I would have lost ( 10% of 100 lacs less 5.26 lacs of savings in Rent vs Buy in year 1)  - Rs 4.74 lacs only.

2. However if the prices were to fall by 10% in one year, I would have stand to gain (10% of 100 lacs +5.26 lacs in savings)  or Rs 15.26 lacs. That is very healthy potential gain for a salaried person.

There are two variables now:

1.    Some may argue that the rentals will go up substantially over one year. However given the occupancy rates of the inhabited buildings currently and expected supply of new houses in one year, it is anyone's guess that whether it will go up as much to bridge the gap. Rentals in my place have actually remained stable or come down by 5-10% in last 3-6 months.
2.    Then there is a debate about whether the prices will go up in one year or in near future in general. I leave that  to the readers to decide that what is the probability of the prices going up by 10% vs its falling by 10% in one year given the following  broad parameters
a.    Oversupply of houses
b.    Very low actual usage by owners. More than 70% of properties is held for investment.
c.    Famous infrastructure of Gurgaon (!!!), I don't even want to talk about it.
d.    Rising interest rates for housing loans and increasing reluctance of the banks to finance high priced properties without adequate margins.

Historically, we have seen that rental yields on Residential properties tends to remain stable within a range of 4.5-5% of the property price as compared to about 3.25-3.5% (post maintenance charges) today in Gurgaon.  This calls for a strong correction in the coming year with upward movement in Property Rentals or Reduction in property prices or both.  What will be the expected trend, I have my own views and you can make your own.

I am happy to get into a debate with other learned people on an alternate analysis of the situation. Let me warn that the analysis is from the perspective of a buyer for actual usage and someone has said that this is the community which sustains the price in the end.

< Chief Minister Hooda's Diwali bonanza for women & jobless | Notes From Abroad: Living Without Water And Electricity in Florida (USA) After The Hurricane >

GREATER NOIDA CITY WINS INTERNATIONAL AWARDS (none / 0) (#16)
by Unregistered Visitors on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 09:30:44 PM EST

Greater Noida, November 3
The Greater Noida city has been awarded ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 certifications for its excellent internal management systems, clean environment and application of modern technology.

According to Greater Noida CEO and Chairman Rakesh Bahadur, Greater Noida Township could possibly be the first city in the country to win these awards, but it is definitely the first in UP.

He said one year of planning and hard work by Greater Noida officers and employees had gone into preparation for the organization, winning these prestigious international awards.

Internal system, management, customer relations and resolving problems according to the set norms are the criteria for  winning ISO 9001 award while unpolluted environment, modern technology and ground water reservoirs were the main yardsticks for the ISO 14001 award.

The awards are presented by NAQSAR, a Switzerland-based international organization, Mr Bahadur said.

The Greater Noida has computerized all its records while permanent records are kept safe and their accessibility is restricted. All public complaints are addressed in a timebound manner and the GNIDA has achieved 85% success rates in past six months in this regard.

The Chairman said Greater Noida was launching a huge housing project, KP-5 for middle and lower income groups.

Hundreds of single-storey houses with one or two rooms will be built on a 90 sq.mt area in a complex which will have a market, school, community centre, dispensary, a nursing home, swimming pool, a sports complex, etc.

The total area of the project will be 100 acres and it will be completed in three years.

A sports and recreation centre over 42 acres and at a cost of Rs 42 crore was also planned as part of this project with cricket ground, athletic tracks, swimming pool, basket ball, volley balls courts, football grounds, etc.

Mr Rakesh Bahadur said 80 per cent of Greater Noida's power problem will be solved by the commissioning of Pali Power house with a capacity of 400 KV by December 15, 2005. Besides two power stations of 132 KV in Knowledge Park-I and IT City will be commissioned by December 2006, the Chairman added



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Prices (none / 0) (#15)
by Unregistered Visitors on Wed Nov 02, 2005 at 08:37:30 AM EST

The prices in Gurgaon are not justified.The city is not even developed and is commanding such prices and by "developed" i mean the basic infrastructure.The prices may not come down as 70% of buyers in gurgaon are investors but the builders have started giving a lot for the same price for eg:free car park ,plastic paint,wood work,more open area,free power back up , etc

So my advice..wait and watch for a few months...the scene will be very clear..all builders were banking on diwali and new year season...after 3-4 months...you will see the prices per sq feet are same as of today but you will get better facilities in new projects plus freebies



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Analysing Buy Vs Rent for Residential Properties (none / 0) (#13)
by rajasharma on Wed Nov 02, 2005 at 01:56:47 AM EST

I must say very meaningful and good model presentd with fair assumptions. Every model has scenarios and things can change a lot BUT I personally think the model presented here which shows that Renting is the right option right now is a correct one. One always gets this itchy feeling, not too comfortable feeling if does not own a place. That is tough to handle and one ca end up taking too many risks (through loans from Banks, friends etc.).

The situation becomes even worse if one is not planning to stay in that place i.e. rent it out to someone else. In this scenario, rent savings are not 100%. One still incurs costs like Building Maintenance and has additional ones like Brokerage fees. The chances of place being empty (say 1 month in a year or more) are also high and so are the chancs of higher wear and tear leading to higher spend on Maintenance (Painting, Repair etc.).

Based on this model and many more models, if one is looking at a personal stay of say X years, Buying makes sense. This Buy Vs Rent is always an interesting exercise.  

In general, Buying makes more sense if one is planning to stay in one place for more than 5 years. But this varies a lot too. In current market scenario, the X might be 8 or maybe even 10 years. If one has a plan to stay for 10 years and can stomach some major volatility along the way where prices could fall by say 10, 20, 30% or even more, he will come out a wnner in the end. The problem one can have heart attacks if the property prices fall by that much. This has happened in many markets both in India and abroad in last 15 years.

Also, I do not think anyone has a horizon of 10 years these days. The future is so uncertain that no one can plan for 10 years.

Overall, not a great situation to be in. So unless is forced to make a call now and has to absolutely do it, postpone the decision and wait and watch.

Once again, great acrticle.



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rent vs. buy (none / 0) (#11)
by sunpar73 on Tue Nov 01, 2005 at 07:06:13 PM EST

  • Dont be short sighted when you do these calculations.
  • Look at historical data for the NCR region
Prices of property over say 10-15 years (or even 20-30) have been a straight line going up.
  • Its always better to own that rent
  • The house you live in is not an investment - Its where you live - The price of that house in immaterial.
  • Lets say today you can afford a house in a decent area costing 20L  - In 5 yrs it might happen that you will have to go 10 km ahead to afford the same type of house.
  • So again for the house you are going to live in, all your calculations are a moot point.

JMHO.
-Sandeep.



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Misplaced notion (none / 0) (#12)
by Unregistered Visitors on Tue Nov 01, 2005 at 10:36:21 PM EST

I am sure you have not forgotten the great price fall in late nineties in the NCR region before the current rise in last 2-3 years only. we are not questioning the need to buy a house but the question is when and what price.


[ Parent | Reply to This ]


timing (none / 0) (#14)
by sunpar73 on Wed Nov 02, 2005 at 07:03:51 AM EST

its impossible to time the market - you need a crystal ball for that.
that is the point i was trying to make that the market might go up or down - nobody can predict that.



[ Parent | Reply to This ]





The basic rule (none / 0) (#10)
by Unregistered Visitors on Mon Oct 31, 2005 at 07:47:07 PM EST

People are talking about many things here....but they are all forgetting the basic rule of any buisness.....demand and supply...and everyone knows that Gurgaon has exceeded the demand and the demand has reduced for the following reasons:

--demand is less in both residential and commercial / office sector as the prices of gurgaon has exceeded a lot and does not justify the infrastructure of the city...MNCs are opting for other cities like Greater Noida which have far better infrastructure and lesser price and more availability of land as its a new city, and residential demand is also shifting to other regions like indirapuram , greater noida and now even to sonipat , faridabad..

--now the most imp reason..every buyer has a capacity....most of the buyers are upper middle class MNC officers and most of them have taken a loan...now nor the loan rates are crashing and neither their salaries are increasing by 100%....nearly 80% of END USERS are in the range of 30-40 lakhs and they all want a 3 bedroom house for this price ...now gurgaon and noida have exceeded this...resulting in MORE INVESTORS AND LESS END USERS......and any market governed by investors and their speculation is very volatile.......

--with the coming up of new cities giving better connectivity , MNC , infratsructure and cheaper price..the buyers are opting for these areas more than ever....the reason why gurgaon and noida attracted so many MNC and residentail develeopment 7-8 years ago is because these cities had ample land for MNCs and the rates were cheaper than delhi...for residents..bigger houses at better rates...now exactly the same thing is happening to gurgaon and noida...with new cities with more land , better infrastructure and cheaper prices..they are commanding excellent growth.

--The prices WILL NOT FALL in gurgaon and noida as it will lead to panic....the prices will stabilise and builders in these areas will start giving more facilties like free car park , power back up etc etc..which will enable them to keep the per sq ft rate alive and yet give something to attract the buyer..

--If one has to purchase..go for newer areas...they have far better connectivity , facilities , infrastructure and better rates
in south new sectors in faridabad , manesar ,north side has sonipat/kundli but the most happening is the east side with indirapuram and greater noida....

--SOMEONE IS TALKING ABOUT RENTAL RATE GOING UP ETC...REMEMBER FOR THIS THERE HAS TO BE DEMAND..WHICH IS NOT THERE IN GURGOAN DUE TO EXCESS SUPPLY...SEE WHAT HAPPENED TO MALLS IN GURGAON...THEY ARE HAVING A NIGHTMARE AND ITS JUST STARTED..THE PEOPLE FROM SOUTH DELHI WILL ALSO STOP COMING WHEN THE MALLS IN SAKET AND VASANT KUNJ WILL BE READY...



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Such calculations don't work in expnding market (none / 0) (#7)
by Unregistered Visitors on Mon Oct 31, 2005 at 06:37:05 AM EST

If you are planning to pay rent for your whole life , even after retirement then go for such solution otherwise it will never work.

You'll pay rent  for coming years and if you plan to buy property any time in future, you'll never get never get that at current price. Hence you'll pay extra money in 2 ways i.e. by paying rent and then by buying property at increased prices. Speculations that prices will drop is now a very distinctive dream and as soon as all the property will change hands, you'll get one more price surge in Gurgaon.

Hence if you have budget today then probraly u should buy.



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Buy V/s Rent (none / 0) (#6)
by Unregistered Visitors on Mon Oct 31, 2005 at 03:58:52 AM EST

I invested in a property in Ridgewood 2.5 yrs ago. I "invested 2500000" which is now worth 4000000 - 4200000. The rentals were around 5% when I initially rented it. Now as is rightly expressed it is around 3.8%. If more and more people go as per the above analysis and decide to rent I am sure the demand for rented property will go up and inturn rentals will improve. Anyway as long as demand is there from actual users either the rental will go up or my investment will grow. I think it is a Win - Win situation either way.
As long as the end users are coming in and city is growing it is a good investment by any standards.



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Good Point (none / 0) (#9)
by hope on Mon Oct 31, 2005 at 08:22:52 AM EST

I agree with your analysis if we all believe that actual users are coming in hoards who have the financial capability to pay those fancy prices and are in  excess of supply of the properties currently. Alas these are only wishes.


[ Parent | Reply to This ]




THE PRICES ARE A GOOF UP (none / 0) (#4)
by Unregistered Visitors on Sun Oct 30, 2005 at 10:26:45 PM EST

here is what is the fact and i am sure many will criticize it as nearly 90% of people on this site are either property dealers or investors...

nearly 60% of the owners in gurgaon are investors who just want their property prices to go up....they are concerned with nothing else...you can identify them easily..as all they speak of is the "price increase"...you will never find them talking about "water , electricity and basic infrastructure of the place"....anyways....as nearly 60% of buyers are investors in gurgaon there has been an artificial price increase.

any house on resale will have an artificial increase but the price offered by a builder is realistic for the simple reason that a builder has to sell nearly 300-400 appts whereas in resale only 2-3 appts have to be sold by the dealer

paying 1 crore for an appt is NOT a problem....but one should get equally good facilities and infrastructure.most of these houses costing 1 crore , etc in DLF and MG road are the ones which have very BASIC facilities and standard quality.

If you have to spend 1 crore or more then go for a new project by a reputed builder , instead of getting standard quality and infrastructure you will get something which is good and latest.

Gurgaon is crumbling and has got saturated....MNCs are opting for other cities , big builders have started going to other cities ...and the infratstructure is getting from bad to worse...

its simply NOT worthed to spend 1 crore for an appt in a city like gurgaon...the prices will NOT increase further...infact the new projects have started giving a lot for the same price to attract buyers..like free car park , free power back up , club membership etc etc etc...

ALL IN ALL BE VERY CAREFUL...DONT THINK THAT PRICE WILL INCREASE AND INCREASE...REMEMBER THERE IS A LIMIT TO EVERYHING...AND GURGAON PRICES HAVE REACHED IT....BE VERY CAREFUL



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Rent vs. buy (none / 0) (#3)
by saratdayal on Sun Oct 30, 2005 at 05:57:02 AM EST

Two points:
  1. Did you do a whatif including even a modest 5% to 8% annual appreciation of the property? I am not suggesting the hypergrowth appreciation of 20% to 30% that has been traditional in India, although many would insist that the future appreciation will remain above 10% given the fundamentals that are boosting the Indian real estate market - rising wages, at least for skilled people, rapidly expanding mortgage pool, and most important of all, the increasing population of the metros. The last, by the way, is a global megatrend that the First World economies have already gone through and the Asian giants are just about to go through.
  2. Regardless of what the numbers are, there is a BIG DIFFERENCE between a pot of money at the end of 20 to 40 years - which is the resale value of your property - as opposed to 5 lacs of savings per year. That 5 lacs per annum will not be there. It will get absorbed into your spending pattern. An analogy - you get a paycheck every month and you automatically have a certain percent deducted and saved in some account. At the end of 10 to 20 years you have a nest egg. On the other hand, you decided to take your entire paycheck home and then save as you wish. Would you really save all that much?


SDayal
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good analysis (none / 0) (#2)
by Unregistered Visitors on Sun Oct 30, 2005 at 01:34:51 AM EST

Thank you for putting things simply. It is clear that there is a gap between rented and owned properties, which means that the property prices are artificially hiked. Of course, smart end-users already know this, and are staying away from this "boom". Builders/Brokers/Dealers/Investors are very happy selling and buying from each other, and in the process, increasing the property prices. My advice to them: don't be the "end-investor" at least because losing money doesn't give a good feeling and not many people would sympathise with you.


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price rise (none / 0) (#1)
by Unregistered Visitors on Sat Oct 29, 2005 at 10:57:30 PM EST

The value of appartments should go up substantially higher than your assumption.  Things are cool now in the market, however, when the price becomes double, like it did in last 2 years, your calculations will not work.  So if you do not buy, you will save for a year, but opportunity lost in the years thereafter will be substantial.


[ Reply to This ]


Speculation (none / 0) (#5)
by Unregistered Visitors on Mon Oct 31, 2005 at 01:15:44 AM EST

I am suprised by the simplicity of your comment. Assuming the price is to double i.e 200 lacs  over coming year(s). Do you think a rental of 75000-80000/month is feasible to support such a price on sutainable basis (for rental yields of 4.5-5%). If the answer is yes from your side then all the best to you.


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