Home | Ask Questions | Computer Gupshup | Free Member Diaries | Contact Us - Sanjay @ 98 712 19911

Unprecedented growth starts to take its toll on property industry in India


By Riti, Section Gurgaon Real Estate Property
Posted on Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 10:08:08 PM EST

Less than a year ago India's property market was one of the most exciting in the world, there was a buzz, speculators were making lots of money and economists predicted unprecedented growth would continue.

Even a couple of months ago confidence was still high. What credit crunch? Whatever was happening in the US and Europe, property in India seemed immune. A few analysts warned, however, that it was only a matter of time before reality would bite.

The warning signs were clear - soaring inflation, easy home finance, rising interest rates, surging oil prices and increasing construction costs.

The first tremours appeared in June and July. A report from HSBC predicted house price falls of between 25 and 30% in most Indian cities.

India's best know developer DLF, which  floated on the stock exchange last summer which was at the time India's biggest ever public offering, announced in July it would buy back part of its equity. It also shelved plans to list its real estate investment trust on the Singapore stock exchange.

Then on Monday the US's oldest investment bank Lehman Brothers crashed. On Tuesday Lehman's India operation was shut down. Then AIG, which provides significant re-insurance capacity in India, had to be rescued by the US government. Turmoil was unleashed on stock markets throughout the world, not least in India.

So it is not surprising that the question on every one's lips right is what now for the property markets in India. One analyst questioned by Property Wire replied simply; 'I don't know. Events are moving too quickly right now for us to be able to take a view'.

However those analysts who have been examining the situation in India over the last few months have formed a view - a sharp downturn will mean it takes some time for confidence to return to the Indian markets. But there is optimism. Return it will, not least because India has a growing middle class population who need homes.

Also developers have seen the future and they are turning away from luxury gated developments to building affordable housing so that when the market bottoms out then it is ordinary investors who will help it to recover.

Click on Full Story for More.

India's property boom took off in 2005 when the Indian government took positive steps to attract direct foreign investment which boosted the infrastructure sector. It meant big names like Dubai based Emmar Properties was able to join with Delhi-based MDF Developments and put together projects then estimated at $4 billion.

Others joined the party including AIG from the US, Kikken Sekkel of Japan and Cesma International from Singapore. Vancouver-based Royal Indian Raj International is investing $2.9 billion in the prestigious Royal Garden City project in Bangalore.

Retail was highlighted as a key growth area. The growing number of middle class Indians would also want to spend money in new shopping malls. But these would not be ordinary shopping malls, they would be crammed with luxury goods and bigger and better than anywhere else in the world.

Gurgaon, one of the rising Delhi suburbs has an auto mall, Bangalore a furniture mall and DLF is developing what is set to be the biggest mall in the world in Delhi. Cities turned into construction sites. Developers went out of their way to woo property investors. Features like earthquake proofing, closed circuit television and spas became standard.

Now the cranes are largely silent. Developers have delayed projects not just because of rising costs but also because banks have restricted credit. In some areas construction sites appear ghostly calm. On one upmarket development in Gurgaon, which boasts a nine hole golf course and a cigar lounge, less than half the houses in the first phase have sold a year since they were put on the market. The HSBC report also indicated that sales in the luxury sector have fallen by up to 70%.

Even when property prices and interest rates start to fall it could be some time before investor confidence returns. 'It's not like buying a car. House buyers tend to wait for much longer before they think about spending so much money,' said Ashutosh Narkar, an analyst with HSBC.

But those with access to finance ought to be able to pick up bargains as desperate developers reduce prices in order to sell.

The Indian government is anxious to bring down inflation, especially before next year's general election. The price of oil is crucial in this respect. India imports 70% of its oil and heavily subsidizes domestic fuel prices.

According to one senior economist specialising in Asia the reality is that India has had years of fantastic growth at 9% per annum. But India grew too quickly and this level could never be sustained. Turmoil in the US and the global credit crunch has perhaps hastened the start of the slowdown.

'There is a need to have a period of slower growth. Around 7% would be sustainable. This will help in the longer term,' said Robert Prior-Wandesforde of HSBC.

This sentiment is echoed by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry in India (ASSOCHAM) which says that a spurt in property prices and spiralling interest rates was bound to lead to a slowdown. 'Skyrocketing prices have to be addressed. It is necessary to check the flow of speculative money,' said President Sajjan Jindal.

The association believes that in the long term the property market is solid. It estimates that India currently has a shortage of about 19.4 million housing units and that an additional 45 million units will be needed by 2012.

Opus condos (SunCity), HyderabadSome developers are bullish. SunCity does not think the current downturn in the property market will affect its 35 acre project with Opus Developers to build 3,400 apartments in Hyderabad. 'We are not building homes in Mumbai or New Delhi where the level of speculation is high. No doubt there will be some impact but in Hyderabad property speculation is minimal. So we don't envisage taking a hit on profits due to a slowdown,' said Koong Wai Seng, SunCity chief financial officer.

However Deutsche Bank has indicated that developers are simply not acknowledging the significance of the downturn. 'They won't acknowledge a significant downcycle but their financials - slowing growth, falling margins, rising debtors and gearing - indicate otherwise,' a spokesman said.

They might not be acknowledging the state of the market in public but their actions do indicate a degree of panic. Firms like DLF, Omaxe, Parsvnath, HDIL, Unitech, Akruti City and Mantri Realty have either initiated or announced plans for new ventures in different areas. They are diversifying into power, telecoms, entertainment, aluminium, cement and steel. Unitech's recent announcement to tap into the 3G Telecom business is a prime example.

According to Jones Lang LaSalle the winners will be those who move into affordable housing construction. 'Large developers are waking up to the fact that affordable housing projects have the fastest absorption rates. The demand is phenomenal and developers getting into this segment can build for years to come. The buyers get what they want and the developers benefit by the sheer economies of scale,' said Anuj Puri.

Although few analysts back the figures of up to 30% put out by HSBC, they do predict a sharp fall. Indiareit Fund Advisors are estimating that property prices in Mumbai are likely to fall by 10 to 15% over the next six to nine months. Orbit Corporation, a leading real estate firm, said there is a total slowdown and nothing is likely to improve until after the elections. 'In reality for the last six months sales were lacklustre. The demand for property will not go up until the general election next year,' said Managing Director Pujit Agarwal.

International property consultants CB Richard Ellis said increasing lending rates, high inflation and unrealistic property values will mean a fall of 15 to 20%.

Colliers International's latest report on the Indian real estate sector predicts the market will bounce back because of demand. 'The situation has become a dilemna for both investors and end-users as the property market has over-expanded in relation to economic fundamentals,' said Surabhi Arora, senior manager.

Source:Propertywire.com September17th,2008.

< Malls or high street, each format has its own advantages and drawbacks | PE To Go Slow On Investment Such As Real Estate, IT And ITeS In The Wake Of Global Economic Meltdown >

Win A Jeans Twice a Week
&
Win A Kurta 7 Days A Week

Login

Membership has its privileges. Choose a username and provide a working email - that's all it takes to join. Click below to make a new account.
Make a new account

Username:
Password:
Bangkok
BIHARSCOOP.COM
JEWELRYFRIEND.com

Who's Online? (11)

. Unregistered Visitors (11)

Note: You may cloak yourself from appearing here in your Display Preferences.

Recent Member Diaries

PAYING GUEST ACCOMODATION AVAILABLE
by Freeman - November 14
59 comments


Paying Guest Accomodation for Girls in Sushant Lok
by poonam23 - November 13
38 comments


Skoda Amb 2002 VIP Number for sale
by phugatboy - November 13
5 comments


Unitech's Strategy for coming years
by malikboss - November 2
37 comments


Is there a blind home in Gurgaon?
by SGARG - October 30
8 comments


Traffic Jams on the Roads
by Pradeep - October 16
13 comments


SANTRO XING FOR SALE
by satishcmishra - October 15

Breeding nurseries of mosquitos for DLF city
by RAJKUMAR77 - October 11
1 comment


PREVENTIONS IN THE SEASON OF DENGUE
by sumandua - October 11

KLJ TOWN PLANNERS PVT LTD
by nd - October 4
28 comments



More Diaries...

Front Page

Monday January 5th
. Zero Stamp Duty For Special Eonomic Zones And SEZ Units Under Lens (0 comments)
. Interest Rate To Dip 4-5% By July: Kamath (0 comments)
. Hooda Inaugurates Country's 2nd Computerised Water Works (0 comments)
. Buying A Home Much More Affordable (0 comments)

Sunday January 4th
. City Housing Projects Will Have To Leave Space For Poor (0 comments)
. Water Table In Gurgaon Takes A Plunge, Has Gone Down By 6 Metres In 2 Yrs (0 comments)
. Dumping Facility Soon Near Faridabad-Gurgaon Road (0 comments)
. Real Estate: Correct Time To Innovate (0 comments)
. Despite Recession Serviced Offices Gain Popularity (0 comments)
. Nine Best Places To Invest In Real Estate In 2009 (0 comments)
. Cenvat Credit Facility Allowed For Supplies To SEZ Developers (0 comments)
. 9 New SEZ Proposals Despite Slowdown (0 comments)
. The Govt Has Set The Ball Rolling By Giving Sops For Affordable Homes (0 comments)
. REITs Lose The Right Choice Tag - Once Popular Investment Option Slips Out Of Investors' Radar (0 comments)
. Countdown To The Dream Home Run (0 comments)
. HUDA Ups Interest Rate On Defaulters (0 comments)

Saturday January 3rd
. Homes That Won't Hurt, Current Economic Crisis Offers To Take That Dream Closer To Reality (0 comments)
. Administration Has Much On Mind For Gurgaon (0 comments)
. Property Firms See Buyers Back In market (0 comments)
. Interest Rates On Home & Other Loans, Particularly For Corporates To Get Cheaper (0 comments)
. 'Managing Liquidity Will Be The Key Challenge': Praveen K Singh Asst. Dir. of Ernst & Young (0 comments)

Friday January 2nd
. Online Power: Stay Home, Pick IIT Mentors' Brains Spread Across The Country (0 comments)
. Realty Developers To Meet RBI Governor For More Sops For The Struggling Real Estate Sector (0 comments)
. Sluggish Real Estate Sector May Come To Life Again With RBI Latest Round Of Interest Rate Cuts (0 comments)
. Haryana Mulls New Package To Shore Up Realty Market in NCR (0 comments)
. Watch Sanjay on IBN7's TV Show "Property Guru" At 12:30 PM on Saturday, January 03, 2009 (0 comments)
. Banks For Loan Recast Flexibility In Dealing With Commercial And Industrial Loan Accounts (0 comments)
. Job Slump? Good News For Job Seekers, Companies To Hire 2,50,000 In Next Few Months (0 comments)
. BSNL Customers To Get Relief From Hefty Cable Bills , Interactive TV Service Launched (0 comments)
. Haryana Plans Commodity Hubs In The States To Provide Value-Added Facilities For Farmers (0 comments)
. Help Us: Games Village Developer's Emaar-MGF SOS To DDA (0 comments)
. Realty Fall Is Now An Opportunity (2 comments)
. HUDA Starts Slip Road Plan Along NH-8 (0 comments)
. Now, Citizens To Keep Eye On Cops In Gurgaon (0 comments)

Thursday January 1st
. Leela To Launch Three New Hotels In 2009 (0 comments)
. Gurgaon Police Invite Public Representatives For Observation (0 comments)
. Retailers Expect To Gain From Falling Rentals,Focus On Special Segments This Year (0 comments)
. Uttarakhand Allots Land At Industrial Estates, Many Beneficiary Companies In SME Sector Are From NCR (0 comments)
. Govt's New Year Resolutions For Gurgaon: More Water, Buses (0 comments)
. Banks And Financial Institutions Can Be More Flexible In Their Dealings (0 comments)
. Rich Indians Eyeing Second Homes Abroad (0 comments)
. More Buses For Gurgaon (0 comments)
. ICICI Slashes Home Loan Rate - EXISTING CUSTOMERS WILL BE BENEFITED TOO (0 comments)
. The Real Estate Market - 2009 (0 comments)

Tuesday December 30th
. A Big Blow For Realtors In 2008 (0 comments)
. A Year Of Infrastructural Development In Gurgaon (0 comments)
. HSIIDC Plan To Create New Industrial Estates In The States (0 comments)
. Public Transport And Security Major Challenges In Gurgaon (0 comments)
. Govt To Soon Assign Grades To Restaurants, Dhabas (0 comments)
. Indian Investment Property Loan Market Comes Under Scrutiny (0 comments)

Older Stories...


All trademarks and copyrights on this page are owned by their respective companies. Comments are owned by the Poster. The Rest (c) GurgaonSCOOP.com and QBTPL.
Home | Ask Questions | Computer Gupshup | Free Member Diaries | Contact Us - Sanjay @ 98 712 19911