Home | Ask Questions | Computer Gupshup | Free Member Diaries | Contact Us - Sanjay @ 98 712 19911

Boom Going Bust: Not just slide of realty rates but, the aggravation caused by absence of buyers


By Sumit Kumar, Section Gurgaon Real Estate Property
Posted on Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 12:06:53 AM EST

By: Malini Bhupta From India Today, September 19, 2008

It is a phenomenon that has no name. Not as yet. But the dark clouds symbolise the crisis enveloping the real estate sector. The symptoms of a slowdown and forebodings of a correction ahead are easy to spot.

It is not just in the slide of real estate rates but, more importantly, the aggravation caused by the absence of buyers. And buyers, hurting from unreal price rise and hit by the 35 per cent spiral in cost of home loans--from 7.5 per cent or Rs 806 per lakh equated monthly instalment (EMI) in 2005 to 12 per cent or Rs 1,101 per lakh in 2008-have stayed away.

So, desperate, builders are throwing in a range of goodies to push through sales. From offering luxury sedans to plots of land, EMI holidays to sweetheart deals, like free furnishings, builders are going all the distance to lure elusive buyers and boost the stagnant property market.

Stung by inflation, rising interest rates and ballooning cost of funding, home buyers have stayed away from the market. Yes, it does seem like a good time to take the bait, but buyers are clearly waiting for more than just freebies. They are waiting for real gains, real drop in prices which, many believe, are round the corner.

As big builders unveil their sop opera, smaller builders trapped between high interest rates and lack of funding are looking for white knights.

Be it a small residential project in Bangalore or a plush villa of Unitech in Gurgaon, all are willing to negotiate on their rack rates. Prices in Gurgaon, says Rohtas Goel of Omaxe, have come down from Rs 4,500 per sq ft last year to Rs 3,000 per sq ft this year.

A builder in Hyderabad's Bandlaguda area has reduced prices thrice already this year for a property it is developing. Orbit Corporation, a Mumbai-based developer, is offering a 15 per cent discount on its residential projects in central Mumbai.

Everything is negotiable. For instance, in Mumbai, Nahar Builders is giving an EMI holiday to buyers. So buyers have to book a property by paying 20 per cent upfront and the developer helps the buyer get a loan approval.

However, the borrower does not start paying EMIs till possession. Ansal API is giving this benefit to buyers in its Mohali project. In the interim period, the loan is serviced by the developer.

While schemes like these are attractive, they work well in areas where there is oversupply, which is a rarity in Mumbai-except in some pockets. Nirmal Lifestyle, a big developer in central suburb Mulund, is offering a waiver on stamp duty and registration, which is typically 5 per cent of the value of the property.
While tangible benefits are welcome, gimmicks are huge in some markets. Orange Properties, for instance, which markets projects of other developers, till recently, was offering a Maruti SX4 free with a flat on Bannerghata Road, Bangalore, costing Rs 42 lakh.

This adds up to a benefit of roughly 15 per cent. Currently, the firm is marketing plots of land in European Township near Budhigere Cross Road, off the new airport at Devenahalli.

The company is offering a Maruti Swift with 40X60 sq ft plot of land which will cost Rs 33 lakh, without registration and stamp duty. Some other developers in Thane are offering land with a promise to buy it back in three years. Of course, the land is 85 km from Mumbai.

Soaring costs have forced some builders to sell projects, as a going concern, with all the permissions. For instance, Omaxe has bought Triveni Group's 10 lakh sq ft residential project in Faridabad for Rs 80 crore.

Rohtas Goel, CMD of Omaxe, says the company is in talks with several such builders to buy their projects. Explaining the phenomenon, he says: "The construction industry's honeymoon period is clearly over and profits of 35-40 per cent will not be possible any more as speculators are out of the market."

With home loan rates rising more than 400 basis points since January 2006 and property prices mounting by 50-100 per cent in most of the locations, builders are sitting on a pile of inventory. Also, they are too cash strapped to hold on to high prices for long.

Says K.G. Mantri, senior vice-president, Man Group: "The real estate market is headed for a shakeout. Small builders, who were heavily leveraged, will go out of business as cost of capital has shot up significantly. Those who had lined up projects of Rs 1,000 crore with an initial investment of Rs 100 crore will not be able to survive as funds are not easily available."

Developers across the board are facing the twin menace of falling demand and soaring costs. For instance, Fitch Ratings has downgraded Parsvnath Developers' debt rating.

The rating agency has also downgraded the developer's long-term debt and long-term bank loan ratings. The real estate company will find it difficult to reduce debt on its books, and profits are expected to come down sharply.

Click on "Full Story" For More...

Land banks that realty companies created through bank funding are now coming back to pinch them as consumers are not willing to pay high rates.

Consequently, be it in Mumbai, national capital region, Bangalore, Hyderabad or Pune, prices of realty have corrected between 15 per cent and 40 per cent. The sharp drop in volumes also tells its own story.

According to real estate consulting firms, between April 2007 and March 2008, 62,595 flats were purchased in Mumbai compared to 74,555 in the same period in the previous year. Real estate specialists claim that compared to 2006-07, there has been a 30 per cent drop in transactions this year.

Says Ashu Dutt, managing director of Celedon Re, Asia Institutional Real Estate Advisors: "We see a slowdown in completions and fewer new residential projects. We expect a significant drop in luxury condominiums in the suburbs."

Accustomed to profit margins of over 40 per cent, developers are sitting on loans at 24 per cent interest. In market conditions, where the RBI has sucked out 25 per cent money supply from the banking system, neither consumers nor investors have the funds to pay a premium for property, which is fetching returns lower than fixed deposits.

The crunch comes in the wake of excess. Worried about speculation driving asset price inflation higher, the RBI had, in the third quarter of 2006-07, increased bank provisioning for loans to real estate sector to 2 per cent, resulting in higher cost of borrowing for realtors.

Many builders, who rampantly invested in the peripheries of major metros using leveraged funds to make a quick buck, are now stuck with large, expensive land banks. While genuine buyers are still willing to pay a premium for upscale neighbourhoods, nobody-not even investors- are any longer willing to pay unrealistic prices.

The situation is expected to worsen with the global meltdown of Lehman Brothers and sale of Merrill Lynch. Last year, Lehman had invested $200 million (Rs 925.5 crore) in DLF promoter group company DLF Assets and bought 50 per cent stake in Unitech's Mumbai project for $175 million (Rs 810 crore) in 2008.

The investment bank has also invested $80 million (Rs 370 crore) in Bangalore-based special economic zone (SEZ) Gandhi City and had plans to hike its share to $300 million (Rs 1,388 crore) later this year.

Lehman's other investments include a 40 per cent stake in an IT park project of Peninsula Land in Hyderabad for an initial investment of Rs 50 crore. It had also teamed up with Mumbai-based developer HDIL to bid for the redevelopment of Asia's largest slum Dharavi.

The debate now, therefore, is whether the slide round the corner will be a correction or a crash. Buyers are clearly hoping it to be a crash. As always, the buzz is ahead of the expected downward curve.

The competition is now between developers setting up new projects and investors who are offering flats at rates cheaper than the developers in the hope of exiting before the feared crash.

Indeed, the new phenomenon is called "a run" wherein investors walk out of projects. In several projects in IT hubs, like Bangalore and Hyderabad, even genuine buyers have walked away either because of falling prices or due to non-delivery of public services dragging down prices.

It is now a classic market tied between supply and demand. Investors are trying to exit without loss and buyers stung by rising interest costs are waiting for the right deal so that they can discount a part of cost of acquisition.

The sentiments have hit even realtors dealing in bungalow colonies, like in Lemoor village where Fabcity was announced in 2006 and Oxygen City in Hyderabad. Says Amit Bagaria, managing director of Asipac, a real estate marketing firm: "Over-supply in certain areas has resulted in poor demand and in such a situation it's not easy to make money."

Quite naturally, builders are pulling out all stops to woo the price-wary buyer. From asking filmstars to perform at project launches to setting a Guinness World Record, builders are busy creating hype around upcoming projects. And, for those which are near completion, it's raining discounts and freebies.

So, with deals flying thick and fast, is this the right time to buy property or wait? For those looking at investment opportunities, the heydays are clearly over. The current Mexican standoff between builders and buyers is expected to come to a head this festival season.

Most developers are hoping for a change in sentiments by Dussehra. With distress levels rising significantly along with the cost of money, developers believe Diwali is the real LoC in this battle.

If the market doesn't revive, it would be fair to expect deeper price-cuts by the end of the year as liquidity crunch will tighten its noose around desperate developers. End-users are waiting for price-cuts to happen, says Anuj Puri, managing director of Jones Lang Lasalle Meghraj.

In this eyeball-to-eyeball contest, so far developers and buyers have held their ground. What happens in the next few weeks? Whether it will be a correction or a crash, depends on who blinks first-the buyers or the sellers. And that will determine whether the boom goes bust.

< Haryana State Agricultural Marketing Board (HSAMB) To Set Up Agromall At Gurgaon | Real-Estate major Piyush Group launches Rs. 210-crore IT project in Faridabad >

Win A Jeans Twice a Week
&
Win A Kurta 7 Days A Week

Login

Membership has its privileges. Choose a username and provide a working email - that's all it takes to join. Click below to make a new account.
Make a new account

Username:
Password:
Bangkok
BIHARSCOOP.COM
JEWELRYFRIEND.com

Who's Online? (18)

. Unregistered Visitors (18)

Note: You may cloak yourself from appearing here in your Display Preferences.

Recent Member Diaries

PAYING GUEST ACCOMODATION AVAILABLE
by Freeman - November 14
59 comments


Paying Guest Accomodation for Girls in Sushant Lok
by poonam23 - November 13
38 comments


Skoda Amb 2002 VIP Number for sale
by phugatboy - November 13
5 comments


Unitech's Strategy for coming years
by malikboss - November 2
37 comments


Is there a blind home in Gurgaon?
by SGARG - October 30
8 comments


Traffic Jams on the Roads
by Pradeep - October 16
13 comments


SANTRO XING FOR SALE
by satishcmishra - October 15

Breeding nurseries of mosquitos for DLF city
by RAJKUMAR77 - October 11
1 comment


PREVENTIONS IN THE SEASON OF DENGUE
by sumandua - October 11

KLJ TOWN PLANNERS PVT LTD
by nd - October 4
28 comments



More Diaries...

Front Page

Monday January 5th
. Zero Stamp Duty For Special Eonomic Zones And SEZ Units Under Lens (0 comments)
. Interest Rate To Dip 4-5% By July: Kamath (0 comments)
. Hooda Inaugurates Country's 2nd Computerised Water Works (0 comments)
. Buying A Home Much More Affordable (0 comments)

Sunday January 4th
. City Housing Projects Will Have To Leave Space For Poor (0 comments)
. Water Table In Gurgaon Takes A Plunge, Has Gone Down By 6 Metres In 2 Yrs (0 comments)
. Dumping Facility Soon Near Faridabad-Gurgaon Road (0 comments)
. Real Estate: Correct Time To Innovate (0 comments)
. Despite Recession Serviced Offices Gain Popularity (0 comments)
. Nine Best Places To Invest In Real Estate In 2009 (0 comments)
. Cenvat Credit Facility Allowed For Supplies To SEZ Developers (0 comments)
. 9 New SEZ Proposals Despite Slowdown (0 comments)
. The Govt Has Set The Ball Rolling By Giving Sops For Affordable Homes (0 comments)
. REITs Lose The Right Choice Tag - Once Popular Investment Option Slips Out Of Investors' Radar (0 comments)
. Countdown To The Dream Home Run (0 comments)
. HUDA Ups Interest Rate On Defaulters (0 comments)

Saturday January 3rd
. Homes That Won't Hurt, Current Economic Crisis Offers To Take That Dream Closer To Reality (0 comments)
. Administration Has Much On Mind For Gurgaon (0 comments)
. Property Firms See Buyers Back In market (0 comments)
. Interest Rates On Home & Other Loans, Particularly For Corporates To Get Cheaper (0 comments)
. 'Managing Liquidity Will Be The Key Challenge': Praveen K Singh Asst. Dir. of Ernst & Young (0 comments)

Friday January 2nd
. Online Power: Stay Home, Pick IIT Mentors' Brains Spread Across The Country (0 comments)
. Realty Developers To Meet RBI Governor For More Sops For The Struggling Real Estate Sector (0 comments)
. Sluggish Real Estate Sector May Come To Life Again With RBI Latest Round Of Interest Rate Cuts (0 comments)
. Haryana Mulls New Package To Shore Up Realty Market in NCR (0 comments)
. Watch Sanjay on IBN7's TV Show "Property Guru" At 12:30 PM on Saturday, January 03, 2009 (0 comments)
. Banks For Loan Recast Flexibility In Dealing With Commercial And Industrial Loan Accounts (0 comments)
. Job Slump? Good News For Job Seekers, Companies To Hire 2,50,000 In Next Few Months (0 comments)
. BSNL Customers To Get Relief From Hefty Cable Bills , Interactive TV Service Launched (0 comments)
. Haryana Plans Commodity Hubs In The States To Provide Value-Added Facilities For Farmers (0 comments)
. Help Us: Games Village Developer's Emaar-MGF SOS To DDA (0 comments)
. Realty Fall Is Now An Opportunity (2 comments)
. HUDA Starts Slip Road Plan Along NH-8 (0 comments)
. Now, Citizens To Keep Eye On Cops In Gurgaon (0 comments)

Thursday January 1st
. Leela To Launch Three New Hotels In 2009 (0 comments)
. Gurgaon Police Invite Public Representatives For Observation (0 comments)
. Retailers Expect To Gain From Falling Rentals,Focus On Special Segments This Year (0 comments)
. Uttarakhand Allots Land At Industrial Estates, Many Beneficiary Companies In SME Sector Are From NCR (0 comments)
. Govt's New Year Resolutions For Gurgaon: More Water, Buses (0 comments)
. Banks And Financial Institutions Can Be More Flexible In Their Dealings (0 comments)
. Rich Indians Eyeing Second Homes Abroad (0 comments)
. More Buses For Gurgaon (0 comments)
. ICICI Slashes Home Loan Rate - EXISTING CUSTOMERS WILL BE BENEFITED TOO (0 comments)
. The Real Estate Market - 2009 (0 comments)

Tuesday December 30th
. A Big Blow For Realtors In 2008 (0 comments)
. A Year Of Infrastructural Development In Gurgaon (0 comments)
. HSIIDC Plan To Create New Industrial Estates In The States (0 comments)
. Public Transport And Security Major Challenges In Gurgaon (0 comments)
. Govt To Soon Assign Grades To Restaurants, Dhabas (0 comments)
. Indian Investment Property Loan Market Comes Under Scrutiny (0 comments)

Older Stories...


All trademarks and copyrights on this page are owned by their respective companies. Comments are owned by the Poster. The Rest (c) GurgaonSCOOP.com and QBTPL.
Home | Ask Questions | Computer Gupshup | Free Member Diaries | Contact Us - Sanjay @ 98 712 19911